Study: Batteries — and EVs — Won’t Get Cheaper Anytime Soon

Without a major breakthrough in battery technology, electric vehicles will remain an expensive proposition and a tiny fraction of the vehicle market for the foreseeable future, according to a study that questions how fast cars with cords will catch on.

The report by Boston Consulting Group underscores a point even some EV advocates have made: The cost of the batteries that power these cars is the technology’s Achilles’ heel, and automakers are being optimistic in predicting how quickly costs will come down. It finds that the long-term cost many automakers cite — $250 per kilowatt-hour — in their long-term electric plans is unrealistic without a “major breakthrough” that brings cheaper, more powerful batteries.

“Given current technology options, we see substantial challenges to achieving this goal by 2020,” says Xavier Mosquet, co-author of the study. “For years, people have been saying that one of the keys to reducing our dependency on fossil fuels is the electrification of the vehicle fleet. The reality is, electric-car batteries are both too expensive and too technologically limited for this to happen in the foreseeable future.”

Several major automakers are developing electric vehicles, and the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf are expected by the end of the year. Cars with cords will be front and center next week at the Detroit auto show in a section called “Electric Avenue,” with Audi, BMW and Volvo among the companies bringing concept cars.